Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts
Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts

Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Economic dirty bomb goes off in New York

A block from my apartment, on a still largely mom-and-pop, relatively low-slung stretch of Broadway, two spanking new apartment towers rose just as the good times were ending for New York. As I pass the tower on the west side of Broadway each morning, one of its massive ground-floor windows displays the same eternal message in white letters against a bright red background: "Locate yourself at the center of the fastest expanding portion of the affluent Upper West Side."

Successive windows assure any potential renter that this retail space (10,586 square feet - 980 square meters - available! 100 feet of frontage! 30ft ceilings! Multiple configurations possible!) is conveniently located only "steps from the 96th Street subway station, servicing 11 million riders annually."

Here's the catch, though: That building was completed as 2007 ended and yet, were you to peer through a window into the gloom beyond, you would make out only a cavernous space of concrete, pillars, and pipes. All those "square feet" and not the slightest evidence that any business is moving in any time soon. Across Broadway, the same thing is true of the other tower.
That once hopeful paean to an "expanding" and "affluent" neighborhood now seems like a notice from a lost era. Those signs, already oddly forlorn only months after our world began its full-scale economic meltdown, now seem like messages in a bottle floating in from BC: Before the Collapse.

And it's not just new buildings having problems either, judging by the increasing number of metal grills and shutters over storefronts in mid-day, all that brown butcher paper covering the insides of windows, or those omnipresent "for rent" and "for lease" signs hawking "retail space" with the names, phone numbers, and websites of real estate agents

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Thursday, 26 March 2009

Citigroup's Latest Con: Commercial Real Estate Fine

One of the next big shoes to drop in the global asset price collapse is commercial real estate. Citigroup, of course, still appears to be carrying its commercial mortgage portfolio at par dreamy levels. (Goldman Sachs)

What is commercial real estate? It's a $6.5 trillion market financed with $3.1 trillion of debt (Real Estate Roundtable, as quoted in WSJ).

Deutsche Bank estimates that commercial real estate prices will fall 35%-45%. That will make commercial real estate a $4 trillion market financed with $3.1 trillion of debt.

The main problem with commercial real estate debt, meanwhile, is not default risk but refinancing risk. Over the next few years, hundreds of billions of loans will come due, and banks won't be quick to refinance them again. As in residential real estate, lending standards have tightened and collateral prices--the real estate--have dropped.

Citigroup has already dumped $20 billion of its commercial real estate risk onto the taxpayer in one of its many bailouts. But it still has $38 billion left. The company has been rapidly increasing loan-loss reserves, but we'd guess not nearly fast enough.

Knowing what you know about Citigroup, what do you think the odds are that Citi has adequately reserved against its commercial mortgage portfolio?

By the way, Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM) are both carrying their commercial mortgages at 100%, too. Wonder what their reserves look like.

Here's more background on the Commercial Real Estate implosion from Richard Parkus at Deutsche Bank:

Deutsche Bank Commercial RE Q1 2009
Source: Business Insider

Tuesday, 10 March 2009

Meet The Subprime Mortgage`s Ugly Cousins

Option ARM and Alt A Tsunami to Follow on from Subprime.

To say we are living in interesting times would be an understatement! Just as many people are starting to think we can stop holding our collective breath as the subprime tsunami starts to recede, there are new dangers that appear on the horizon and many peope probably have not heard of them - yet. And guess what??? Once again UK financial institutions were all too happy to join in the fun!!





Sunday, 8 March 2009

Have Leaders Around the World Taken Their Eye Off the Ball?

The $700 trillion elephant

Derivatives are worth $700 trillion, but no one is speaking about them or regulating them. This is the real source of Wall Street's downfall -- and it's crippling the rest of us.



READ THE FULL STORY HERE

Thursday, 5 March 2009

Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, was among the few analysts whose forecasts for 2008 proved accurate. Mauldin, author of the popular "Thoughts from the Frontline" e-letter, discusses the economic situation in Eastern Europe.





 
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